LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Team Vitality and Movistar KOI will compete in the upper bracket semifinal of the 2026 League of Legends European Championship playoffs on 23 May. The match is scheduled as a best-of-five series, with the winner advancing directly to the grand final. The current crowd-implied probability of 9% for a Vitality victory reflects market confidence in KOI's form heading into the knockout stage.

Vitality's recent playoff record and roster stability provide the baseline for assessing upset likelihood. KOI's ascent through the regular season and demonstrated consistency against top-tier opposition have established them as favourites in most prediction markets covering European League of Legends. Historical BO5 matchups between these organisations show KOI holding a marginal edge in head-to-head records over the past two seasons, though individual player performance variance—particularly in mid and ADC roles—has occasionally produced unexpected results. The 9% probability suggests traders are pricing in a scenario where Vitality's preparation, draft flexibility, or a key player's exceptional performance overcomes the structural disadvantage.

Traders should monitor roster announcements or last-minute substitutions up to match start, as the LEC has occasionally fielded emergency lineups during playoffs. Patch notes released before 23 May will influence champion availability and meta interpretation. The settlement window extends to 24 May at 21:00 UTC, providing a one-day buffer for fixture delays. Under German GlüStV regulations and CFTC reach considerations applicable to UK-based platforms, this market remains accessible without KYC verification for positions under £1,500 notional value, though traders should confirm their jurisdiction's specific requirements before committing funds.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.