Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Cleveland Guardians travel to Philadelphia on 24 May for a regular-season matchup against the Phillies at 1:35 PM ET. The settlement window extends to 31 May at 17:35 UTC, allowing for postponements or rescheduled games within that six-day buffer. Resolution follows official MLB final statistics; cancellations without make-up games or ties trigger a 50-50 split.

The 68% crowd-implied probability favours Cleveland, a positioning that reflects the Guardians' recent competitive standing in the AL Central and their bullpen depth. Historical matchups between these franchises show relatively balanced outcomes over the past three seasons, though context matters: home-field advantage at Citizens Bank Park typically carries 2–3 percentage points in win probability models. The Phillies' roster depth in the outfield and infield has remained stable, whilst Cleveland's roster construction emphasises pitching consistency. Comparable games from May 2024 suggest that day-game matchups in Philadelphia favour neither team systematically.

Traders should monitor injury reports released 24 hours before first pitch, particularly regarding starting pitchers and key position players. Weather conditions at Citizens Bank Park—wind direction and temperature—can materially affect play in late May. Recent news from MLB.com and team official channels will confirm roster availability. The Guardians' recent performance streak and the Phillies' home record in the preceding week represent the most immediate catalysts. No scheduled weather delays or field maintenance issues have been reported as of the market's opening.

Methodology

We track Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.