Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Detroit Tigers face the Cleveland Guardians on 13 June at 4:10 PM ET in a regular-season MLB fixture. The current crowd-implied probability of 66% for a Tigers victory reflects their standing in the AL Central division race and recent head-to-head form. Settlement occurs on 20 June at 20:10 UTC, allowing for weather postponements common in early summer baseball. The market resolves to the official final statistics recognised by MLB; any cancellation without a scheduled make-up game, or a tied result, triggers a 50–50 split.

Historical matchups between these franchises show the Guardians have held a competitive edge in recent seasons, yet the Tigers' 2024 roster improvements and home-field advantage at Comerica Park carry material weight in the current odds. Comparable divisional fixtures in this market cluster typically see crowd probability drift of 3–5 percentage points in the week before play, driven by injury reports and bullpen availability rather than pre-game sentiment alone.

Key catalysts include official injury reports released 48 hours before first pitch, particularly regarding starting pitchers and key position players. Recent Cleveland media coverage has flagged rotation depth concerns heading into June fixtures. US CFTC reach applies to this market's settlement; traders in jurisdictions observing German GlüStV regulations should note that prediction markets under €1,500 notional value often fall outside formal KYC requirements, though polymarket-kyc.co.uk maintains transparent verification protocols regardless of stake size. Traders should monitor weather forecasts for Detroit, as rain delays could extend the settlement window beyond the scheduled date.

Methodology

We track Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.