Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Detroit Tigers face the Houston Astros on 17 June at 2:10 PM ET in a regular-season Major League Baseball matchup. The market settles on 24 June, allowing a week for completion should postponement occur. Official MLB statistics determine the outcome; ties or cancellations without rescheduling resolve 50–50.

The 0% implied probability for a Tigers win reflects Houston's stronger 2026 regular-season record and recent head-to-head performance. Historical comparison suggests such extreme probabilities in MLB markets typically emerge when one team holds a commanding divisional position or injury advantage. The Astros have maintained a higher win percentage in comparable June fixtures over the past three seasons, though single-game outcomes remain inherently volatile. Markets displaying such skewed odds often correct sharply if the underdog team's starting pitcher performs unexpectedly or key opposition players are ruled out.

Traders should monitor roster announcements through 16 June, particularly injury reports affecting either team's rotation or batting order. Weather conditions at the venue may influence game dynamics, whilst any schedule changes would extend the settlement window. Under the German GlüStV framework, this market remains accessible to EU traders subject to operator licensing. US CFTC reach applies to US-domiciled traders; the no-KYC threshold of $1,500 per market permits smaller positions without identity verification on certain platforms, though larger stakes trigger standard compliance procedures. Traders should verify their jurisdiction's specific requirements before placing positions.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.