New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The New York Yankees will host the Milwaukee Brewers on 9 May at 7:10 PM ET in a regular-season Major League Baseball fixture. Resolution hinges on the official final score as recorded by MLB; postponement extends the market until completion, whilst cancellation without a make-up game or a tied result triggers a 50-50 split. The settlement window closes on 16 May at 23:10 UTC, allowing a week for the game to be played and officially recorded.

The 0% implied probability reflects either extreme illiquidity or a technical artefact in market initialisation rather than genuine consensus that the Yankees cannot win. Historical MLB matchups between these franchises show competitive variance; neither team's regular-season record alone determines single-game outcomes. Comparable sports markets typically show meaningful probability ranges even for heavily favoured teams, suggesting this reading warrants caution as a signal of underlying expectation.

Traders should monitor roster announcements, particularly injury status for key pitchers and position players, which can shift performance expectations materially. Weather conditions at Yankee Stadium on game day—wind direction and temperature affect ball carry—merit attention. From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction: German players face GlüStV restrictions on unlicensed betting markets; US participants should note CFTC oversight of prediction markets; platforms offering no-KYC access up to $1,500 typically apply that threshold per calendar year or per transaction, affecting position sizing for traders in those jurisdictions.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.