Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is an MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets, scheduled for 4:10PM ET on 27 June 2026, where the market resolves to the Phillies if they win and to the Mets if they win. Historical precedent frames the current 7% crowd-implied probability for the Phillies: just hours before this game, the Phillies defeated the Mets 2–1 in their last meeting on 26 June, with Zack Wheeler pitching seven solid innings and earning the win, while the Mets’ manager Carlos Mendoza was fired and replaced by Green [2]. This back-to-back matchup suggests the Phillies’ momentum and managerial stability may be undervalued by the market, as similar consecutive games in MLB often see the winning team from the prior day maintain a slight edge, though pitching rotations and fatigue can shift outcomes.

Traders should monitor immediate announcements regarding the Mets’ new manager Green’s first game strategy, any late-injury updates to key pitchers, and the official starting lineups released before 4:10PM ET, as these dependencies directly impact win probability. Recent coverage from Covers.com notes Wheeler’s strong performance and the Mets’ managerial turmoil as critical factors influencing this game’s dynamics [2]. For accessibility, the market’s “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold means users can trade without identity verification under this limit, aligning with German GlüStV’s tolerance for small-scale betting and US CFTC’s reach over unregulated prediction markets, though larger trades require full KYC compliance to meet regulatory standards. This structure ensures broad participation while maintaining legal oversight for significant volumes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.