Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Inter Miami CF will face Philadelphia Union in an MLS regular season match on 24 May 2026. The 45% implied probability for a Miami victory reflects moderate confidence in the home side, though the fixture's outcome remains genuinely competitive. Miami's recent form and squad depth will be central to how the market reprices as match day approaches.

Historical MLS head-to-head records between these clubs show relatively balanced results, with neither side holding decisive dominance over recent seasons. Philadelphia's defensive record and Miami's attacking potency have both fluctuated considerably depending on injury status and mid-season transfers. Comparable fixtures from the 2024–2025 season suggest that away performances by Union in South Florida have been inconsistent, which partly explains why the market hasn't pushed Miami's probability significantly higher despite home advantage.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under distinct frameworks depending on trader jurisdiction. UK-based participants fall under the Gambling Commission's remit, whilst US traders encounter CFTC oversight of prediction markets, though enforcement remains selective. German traders should note that participation may trigger GlüStV (Glücksspielstaatsvertrag) compliance requirements depending on the platform's licensing. The "no-KYC up to $1,500" threshold commonly cited across platforms means traders can access this market with minimal identity verification below that stake level, though settlement and withdrawal procedures may still require documentation. Team news regarding injuries, suspensions, or tactical changes will emerge in the week preceding the match; monitor official MLS communications and club statements for shifts that could materially alter the probability.

Methodology

This page reviews Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.