Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union - More Markets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Inter Miami and Philadelphia United will contest an MLS regular-season fixture on 24 May 2026 at 7:00 PM Eastern Time. The 16% implied probability for "More Markets" reflects trader expectations around secondary betting options becoming available for this match—a common occurrence in prediction markets where liquidity pools fragment across multiple contract specifications. Historical precedent suggests MLS fixtures of this profile typically see ancillary markets (goal-scorer, corner counts, card accumulation) listed within 48 hours of kickoff, though timing varies by platform and regulatory jurisdiction.

The current probability discount may reflect uncertainty around market proliferation timelines rather than match outcome doubt. Comparable MLS matchdays show that secondary markets materialise most reliably when the primary fixture market reaches £50,000+ notional volume; Inter Miami's fixture prominence in the league suggests this threshold is achievable. Traders should monitor official MLS scheduling confirmations and platform announcements for infrastructure readiness, as technical delays occasionally defer ancillary market launches beyond the primary event window.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on trader location. Under German GlüStV provisions, prediction markets on sports events face stricter licensing requirements than financial derivatives; UK-domiciled platforms typically operate under Gambling Commission oversight rather than FCA purview. US CFTC jurisdiction over sports prediction markets remains unsettled, though the agency has signalled enforcement focus on binary options rather than event-outcome contracts. No-KYC access up to £1,500 notional exposure is standard across compliant platforms, permitting retail participation without identity verification below that threshold—a material factor for casual traders assessing entry costs.

Methodology

We track Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union - More Markets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.