Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Hellas Verona will travel to the Stadio Olimpico to face AS Roma on 24 May 2026 in a Serie A fixture. The 10% implied probability suggests the market participants assess a low likelihood of this specific outcome occurring, though the exact settlement criteria—whether this reflects a Verona victory, a draw, or another defined result—determines how traders should calibrate their positions.

Historical context shows that Roma's home record at the Olimpico typically favours the capital club, particularly in late-season fixtures where European qualification stakes remain contested. Comparable Serie A encounters between mid-table sides and established Roman sides over the past three seasons reveal Roma's win rate at home sits around 65–70%, with draws accounting for roughly 20% of outcomes. The current 10% probability aligns with market pricing for an away victory or specific alternative outcome, suggesting traders view this as a low-probability event relative to Roma's historical dominance in this fixture type.

Traders monitoring this market should track team news releases from both clubs in the week preceding 24 May, including injury reports and squad rotation decisions—particularly relevant given potential European competition schedules affecting squad availability. Serie A fixture congestion in May 2026 may influence squad freshness; monitoring official announcements from the Lega Serie A website will clarify final scheduling. From a regulatory perspective, this market operates under German GlüStV provisions where applicable, whilst US CFTC reach extends to certain derivative structures. The no-KYC threshold up to $1,500 USD applies to qualifying jurisdictions, affecting accessibility for smaller-stake traders in non-regulated territories, though settlement window closure at 13:00 UTC on 24 May establishes a hard deadline for position management.

Methodology

We track Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.