Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

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Market context

Military vessels from countries beyond the Gulf's established naval powers transiting the Strait of Hormuz would represent a significant shift in regional maritime posture. The strait remains one of the world's most strategically sensitive chokepoints, with roughly one-third of seaborne traded oil passing through its 21-nautical-mile width. Warship transits by non-regional actors are rare and typically occur only during periods of heightened geopolitical tension or formal international interventions. The 4% implied probability reflects the baseline expectation that no major power will deploy combat vessels through the strait over the next 18 months absent a substantial crisis.

Historical precedent suggests transits cluster around specific catalysts: the 1987–1988 Tanker War saw US Navy escorts; the 2019 tensions following the Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure prompted increased Western naval presence; and the 2022 Ukraine conflict saw no comparable Gulf deployments. Current monitoring points include Iranian military announcements, Houthi activity levels, and any formal US or allied naval task force declarations. Recent reporting from Reuters and regional defence ministries indicates no scheduled major-power warship operations through the strait as of early 2025, though contingency planning remains standard practice among NATO and Gulf Cooperation Council navies.

From a market-access perspective, UK traders should note that prediction markets on geopolitical events fall under the Financial Conduct Authority's purview, whilst German participants face GlüStV licensing requirements. The CFTC's extraterritorial reach extends to US persons regardless of location. Platforms offering no-KYC trading up to £1,000 typically exclude prediction markets on political or military events, meaning this market likely requires full identity verification and proof of funds before position entry, limiting casual participation.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.