Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Karl Poling and Andre Ilagan are scheduled to compete in a professional tennis match in Tyler on 6 June 2026 at 12:30 PM ET. The market settles on whether Poling advances past Ilagan, with resolution occurring by 13 June 2026 at 16:30 UTC. Should the match be postponed beyond seven days without completion, or cancelled entirely, the market resolves 50–50. A retirement by either player after the match has begun counts as an advance for the opponent.

The 0% implied probability reflects limited historical trading activity or data availability on both players at this venue level. Comparable ATP Challenger and ITF circuit matches at regional venues typically show wider probability distributions once draw sheets are published and player form becomes quantifiable. The absence of recent head-to-head records or established ranking differentials between Poling and Ilagan suggests traders are awaiting official confirmation of their participation and seeding before committing capital.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under distinct frameworks depending on trader location. UK-based traders face Financial Conduct Authority oversight; EU traders encounter German GlüStV requirements if accessing through certain platforms. US CFTC reach extends to binary sports derivatives, though prediction markets structured as event contracts occupy a grey zone. No-KYC access up to $1,500 USD typically applies to individual prediction markets on regulated platforms, meaning traders can establish positions without identity verification below that threshold, though aggregate exposure across multiple markets may trigger verification requirements. Confirmation of the match date, player withdrawals, and any venue changes should be monitored through official ATP or ITF communications prior to settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.