Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump's removal from the presidency before 30 June 2026 would require either his resignation, conviction and removal via impeachment, invocation of the 25th Amendment (Section 4), or death in office. The market explicitly excludes temporary suspensions and requires permanent cessation of presidential authority. At 1% implied probability, traders are pricing this as a low-likelihood event within an 18-month window.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance. No sitting US president has been removed via the 25th Amendment Section 4 process, which requires the Vice President and a cabinet majority to declare the president unfit—a threshold rarely approached even in periods of acute political tension. Richard Nixon's 1974 resignation remains the only voluntary departure by a sitting president; Gerald Ford's succession via the 25th Amendment Section 2 (following Spiro Agnew's resignation) involved a vacancy rather than removal of an incumbent. Impeachment removal requires a two-thirds Senate supermajority, a bar unmet since Andrew Johnson's 1868 trial. These historical hurdles suggest markets typically assign removal probabilities well below resignation odds.

Traders monitoring this contract should track congressional composition following the 2024 elections, any formal impeachment proceedings, public statements from Trump's cabinet regarding fitness for office, and health-related developments. The CFTC's regulatory reach over prediction markets and the German GlüStV's treatment of political derivatives affect market accessibility across jurisdictions. Under UK-based platforms' no-KYC thresholds up to £1,200 (approximately $1,500), retail traders can access this market without identity verification, though larger positions trigger standard customer due diligence requirements. Settlement hinges on official announcements of resignation or removal, not speculation or rumour.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.