Highest temperature in Ankara on May 22?

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Market context

Ankara’s daytime peak on 22 May will be set by the highest reading at Esenboğa Intl Airport Station during the observation window, so the market is really about whether the city gets a warm, dry afternoon or remains capped by cloud, rain, or a cooler northerly flow. Long-run May normals for Ankara point to highs in the low- to mid-20s Celsius, with daytime temperatures typically rising through the month, so a sub-20°C outcome would generally require a notable weather disruption. The current 0% YES implied price suggests the market is still treating a high in the relevant range as very unlikely, which is consistent with the fact that airport maxima can be materially lower than city-centre values when showers, wind, or late cloud hold down heating.

For comparison, Ankara’s May weather history shows a fairly wide spread between cool and warm days: climatology sites put average highs around 22–23°C, but individual days can sit several degrees either side depending on precipitation and cloud cover. That means a single afternoon front can shift the settlement outcome more than the monthly average would imply. Traders should watch the latest airport forecast, any METAR/TAF changes for Esenboğa, and model updates on rainfall timing and cloud break-up; the key dependency is whether surface heating is uninterrupted before the settlement window closes. Recent weather commentary from AccuWeather and local forecast feeds has highlighted that Ankara’s May conditions can swing quickly from showery to warm, which matters more here than the month’s average temperature.

Regulatory access is also part of the practical context. Under German GlüStV rules, many online betting-style products face strict restrictions, so availability may be limited for users located in Germany even where the market itself is accessible elsewhere. In the US, the CFTC’s reach means derivatives-style contracts can sit in a more complex compliance area than simple entertainment bets, so location and product structure matter. “No-KYC up to $1,500” means a user may be able to trade smaller amounts without identity verification, which lowers friction for this specific market, but it does not remove geographic blocks, venue limits, or any obligations tied to larger withdrawals or higher-volume activity.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.