Highest temperature in Beijing on June 15?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 15 June 2026 will be recorded at Capital International Airport Station and resolved via Wunderground historical data. June in Beijing typically sees daily highs between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, capturing the full calendar day's peak temperature across all local recording times.

The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine difficulty in forecasting a specific day's temperature eighteen months forward. Historical precedent shows June temperature ranges in Beijing cluster around 30–31°C as a median, with extremes rarely exceeding 37°C or falling below 25°C. Comparable weather prediction markets on established platforms typically see wider probability distributions for single-day temperature bands, suggesting either illiquidity in this particular market or trader caution about long-dated weather settlement. China Meteorological Administration publishes seasonal outlooks each May; the 2026 summer forecast, due May 2026, will be the nearest official guidance available before settlement.

Traders should monitor two catalysts: the East Asian summer monsoon onset timing (typically late May to early June, reported by regional meteorological bodies) and any El Niño or La Niña conditions persisting into mid-2026, both of which influence North China Plain temperatures. The China National Climate Center releases monthly climate bulletins; the June 2026 bulletin, published in early July, will provide context for post-hoc analysis. Under German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks, weather derivatives on non-financial indices like temperature face lighter regulatory scrutiny than equity or commodity contracts, though KYC thresholds vary by jurisdiction—UK-based traders accessing polymarket-kyc.co.uk should verify local compliance, as no-KYC access up to $1,500 typically applies only to certain derivative classes and may exclude weather contracts depending on operator licensing.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.