Highest temperature in Beijing on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 4 June 2026 will be measured at Capital International Airport Station and reported via Wunderground's historical records. Early June in Beijing typically sits in the 25–32°C range, though heat waves can push readings into the mid-30s. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, capturing the full calendar day's peak.

The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than consensus that heat is impossible. Historical June data from Beijing shows considerable year-on-year variance; the city recorded 35.3°C on 4 June 2012 but only 26.1°C on the same date in 2019. Traders should examine the five-year range for early June peaks at this specific station to calibrate expectations against the available resolution brackets. Wunderground's historical archive provides comparable daily maxima, offering a baseline for assessing which temperature bands carry genuine predictive weight versus those priced as tail outcomes.

The China Meteorological Administration publishes seasonal forecasts and weekly outlooks; traders monitoring their June 2026 guidance in late May will gain material signals on whether anomalous heat or cooler patterns are developing. Broader atmospheric indices—the East Asian summer monsoon onset timing and any early heat dome positioning over northern China—typically become clearer in the final fortnight before settlement. No major regulatory announcements or scheduled events alter Beijing's weather directly, though the market's accessibility under German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks (with no-KYC entry up to £1,200 equivalent) means retail participation may amplify price movements on late-breaking meteorological news.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on June 4? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.