Highest temperature in Beijing on June 9?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 9 June 2026 will be recorded at Capital International Airport Station and resolved via historical weather data from Wunderground. June marks the transition into Beijing's warm season, with typical daily highs ranging from 28–32 °C, though heat waves can push readings above 35 °C. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's temperature range recorded at the official station.

Historical June temperature records for Beijing show considerable year-to-year variation. In recent decades, extreme heat events have occurred sporadically—for instance, June 2022 saw temperatures exceed 40 °C in parts of northern China, whilst cooler Junes have remained in the low-to-mid 30s. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently view the highest-temperature outcome as unlikely or that the market lacks sufficient liquidity to establish a baseline. Comparable weather markets typically see probability mass distributed across multiple temperature bands rather than concentrated in a single outcome, indicating either early-stage pricing or genuine uncertainty about which range will materialise.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under different jurisdictional frameworks depending on trader location. The German GlüStV (gambling licensing authority) treats prediction markets as wagering products requiring specific licensing; US CFTC oversight applies to certain derivatives but prediction markets occupy a grey zone. Many platforms offer no-KYC access up to $1,500 notional exposure, which permits retail participation without identity verification below that threshold—a material consideration for traders assessing entry costs and compliance burdens on this specific market.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.