Highest temperature in Beijing on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 26 May 2026 will be measured at Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. Late May in Beijing typically sees daily highs between 28–32 °C, though heat waves can push readings above 35 °C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating the outcome as highly uncertain across all temperature bands.

Historical May temperatures at Beijing Capital Airport show considerable year-to-year variation. In May 2023, the highest daily temperature reached 31.5 °C; in May 2022, it peaked at 33.8 °C. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 26 May 2026, which corresponds to early evening Beijing time—typically near the day's temperature peak. Comparable weather markets on this venue have shown that crowd probability distributions often flatten when underlying events are distant and subject to multiple meteorological variables, making early-season pricing unreliable as a predictor of actual outcomes.

Traders monitoring this market should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week preceding 26 May, as these will incorporate seasonal patterns and any anomalous pressure systems. The German GlüStV and US CFTC do not directly regulate weather derivatives on decentralised platforms, though the UK Financial Conduct Authority's approach to prediction markets affects accessibility for UK residents. Markets settling under $1,500 notional value typically operate without KYC requirements on most platforms, though polymarket-kyc.co.uk's specific terms should be verified for this contract's classification and any regional restrictions.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.