Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 20?

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Market context

The settlement point is the **highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station** on 20 June, so the relevant question is whether the day produces a routine early-summer high or a sharper spike into the upper 30s Celsius. June in Chengdu is already warm and humid, with typical highs commonly cited around **28–31°C**, but occasional days can reach **38°C** in peak summer conditions, so the market is really a read on whether the airport station lands in the upper tail of the local distribution rather than the monthly average.[2][3][4][6]

That framing matters because a **0% YES** crowd price implies the market is treating a qualifying temperature band as effectively unreachable, yet comparable June references show Chengdu regularly sits in the high-20s to low-30s and can overshoot that range on hotter afternoons.[2][5][7][8] The airport station is the binding data point, not a city-wide feel or forecast headline, so traders usually watch the same-day max-temperature trend, cloud cover, rainfall, and any short-lived heat burst around midday to mid-afternoon. With settlement ending at **12:00 UTC**, only the observed maximum before the cut-off counts, which can matter if the local peak arrives later in the day.

On access and regulation, the market’s practical availability depends on platform onboarding rules rather than the weather itself: a **no-KYC up to $1,500** threshold generally means a user can typically access and trade up to that limit without completing identity verification, but higher activity usually triggers checks. For German users, **GlüStV**-related gambling restrictions may affect whether participation is permitted at all, while US-facing traders should note that the **CFTC** has asserted broad reach over certain event-contract activity, so venue access can be constrained by location and compliance rules.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.