Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26?

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Market context

The real-world event hinges on whether Chongqing’s Jiangbei International Airport records a peak temperature within a specific Celsius range on 26 June 2026, with the settlement source drawn from Wunderground’s daily high for that station. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the “YES” outcome, suggesting traders view the target range as highly unlikely given typical June conditions.

Historical data frames this probability sharply: Chongqing’s hot season runs from 20 June to 9 September, with average daily highs exceeding 30°C, and the city has recorded 149 days above 40°C since 1951, including a peak of 43.2°C in August 2022[1][4][5]. Comparable June peaks in the Sichuan Basin have reached 31–32°C under subtropical high-pressure ridges, making a 0% YES probability plausible only if the target range is set far above these norms[3].

Traders should monitor the subtropical high-pressure ridge’s position over the Sichuan Basin, as its strength directly dictates peak temperatures, alongside any official weather bureau forecasts released 24–48 hours before settlement[3]. Recent analysis confirms that ridge dynamics can push Chongqing’s peak toward 31–32°C, so a sudden shift in ridge intensity could alter settlement expectations[3]. Regulatory accessibility remains unaffected by weather: German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks permit “no-KYC up to $1,500” trades, ensuring this market is accessible to UK residents without identity verification for stakes under that threshold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.