Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27?

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Market context

The real-world event at hand is the peak temperature recorded on 27 June 2026 at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, which will determine the settlement of a prediction market currently showing a 0% probability for the "YES" outcome. Historical data confirms that June is one of Guangzhou’s hottest and most humid months, with the highest temperature ever recorded reaching 36.6°C, while typical daily highs in June 2026 are forecast between 87°F and 91°F (30.4°C to 32.8°C)[3][4]. Recent market activity on comparable dates, such as 25 June, saw the frontrunner settle at 35°C with 100% confidence, suggesting that temperatures in this range are statistically probable rather than anomalous[2]. The current 0% "YES" probability appears inconsistent with these historical and forecasted patterns, indicating a potential mispricing that traders should scrutinise against established climate baselines.

Traders should monitor upcoming meteorological announcements, particularly those related to subtropical high-pressure systems and typhoon activity, which heavily influence Guangzhou’s June weather and could cause sudden temperature spikes or drops[3]. The settlement depends entirely on data from Wunderground, making the reliability of this source a critical dependency; any gaps or delays in reporting could affect resolution timing. A recent forecast from AccuWeather highlights daily highs ranging from 87°F to 91°F for June 2026, reinforcing the likelihood of temperatures exceeding 30°C[4]. Regarding accessibility, German GlüStV regulations and US CFTC reach impose strict compliance frameworks, yet the "no-KYC up to $1,500" provision allows traders to access this market without identity verification, provided their position remains within this threshold. This feature enhances accessibility for users seeking to trade on weather outcomes without disclosing personal data, though it does not exempt them from broader regulatory obligations.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.