Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 10?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 10 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in Celsius to one decimal place. This market settles on that single data point once the Observatory publishes its "Daily Extract" with the "Absolute Daily Max" figure. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, though resolution may be delayed until the Observatory finalises and publishes the reading.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are shaped by the onset of the southwest monsoon and pre-typhoon atmospheric patterns. Historical June maxima in Hong Kong range from approximately 31°C to 35°C, with the territory's climate data spanning decades available through the Observatory's public archive. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a calibration market. Comparable June days show high variance depending on whether tropical systems approach the region or high-pressure systems dominate; this variability makes historical clustering less predictive than real-time meteorological conditions in late May and early June 2026.

From a regulatory standpoint, this weather derivative falls under different jurisdictional frameworks depending on trader location. The German GlüStV (gambling licensing authority) classifies prediction markets as gaming contracts requiring operator licensing; UK-based platforms must comply with Gambling Commission rules. US CFTC oversight applies if US persons access the market, though weather derivatives typically receive exemptive relief under certain conditions. The "no-KYC up to $1,500" threshold common in some prediction market jurisdictions means traders in compliant regions may access this market with minimal identity verification provided their position size remains modest—a material consideration for retail participation in niche weather markets where liquidity is often constrained.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 10? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.