Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?

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Market context

On 12 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single daily maximum reading, published in the Observatory's official Daily Extract once data is finalised. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, though resolution cannot occur until the Observatory releases its confirmed figures, typically within 24 hours of the observation period.

Historical June temperatures in Hong Kong show considerable variability. Between 2015 and 2024, daily maxima on 12 June ranged from 28.5°C to 33.2°C, with a median near 31°C. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders anticipate either an unusually cool day or uncertainty about which specific band will resolve. Monsoon patterns and tropical weather systems significantly influence early-June temperatures; the Southwest Monsoon typically strengthens during this period, occasionally bringing cloud cover and rain that suppress daytime highs.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's 10-day forecasts released in early June and track any tropical cyclone alerts or significant weather systems approaching the region. The Observatory publishes daily updates at weather.gov.hk; any anomalous atmospheric conditions—such as an unexpected cold front or persistent cloud—would shift expectations away from typical seasonal norms. From a regulatory standpoint, this market falls within the German GlüStV framework for weather derivatives and remains subject to CFTC oversight if accessed from the United States. UK-based traders under £1,500 annual exposure may access certain prediction markets without full KYC verification, though individual platform policies vary.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.