Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13?

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Market context

On 13 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single daily maximum reading, published in the Observatory's official Daily Extract once the data is finalised. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, though resolution cannot occur until the Observatory publishes its final figures, typically within 24–48 hours of the observation period.

Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster reliably between 28 and 34 degrees Celsius, with historical daily maxima rarely exceeding 35 degrees. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting specific temperature-range options to appear, or the market's resolution bands have not yet been defined with sufficient granularity to attract positions. Comparable meteorological markets on this exchange have shown that crowd confidence in weather outcomes strengthens once historical normals and recent seasonal patterns are cross-referenced against the Observatory's five-year rolling dataset.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts, typically updated fortnightly, and track any tropical cyclone warnings issued by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre in the week preceding 13 June, as these materially affect daily maxima. The Observatory publishes preliminary daily readings by 0900 UTC each morning; final certified figures appear in the Daily Extract within two working days. Under German GlüStV and US CFTC reach provisions, this weather derivative remains accessible to UK-based traders without KYC verification up to £1,200 (approximately $1,500 USD equivalent) per calendar year, provided the underlying contract value does not exceed that threshold. Traders exceeding that limit must complete full identity verification.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket KYC UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.