Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 14?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 14 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single daily maximum reading, published in the Observatory's official Daily Extract once the meteorological data is finalised and released.

Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster reliably between 28 and 34 °C, with historical daily maxima rarely exceeding 35 °C during the month. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting range definitions or treating this as a calibration exercise; comparable weather markets on established platforms show similar flat distributions when settlement depends on precise Observatory publication timing rather than forecast uncertainty. June sits in Hong Kong's pre-monsoon transition period, when afternoon convection and sea-breeze patterns dominate thermal variation more than synoptic systems do.

The critical dependency is publication lag. The Hong Kong Observatory typically releases Daily Extract data within 24–48 hours of observation, but market settlement cannot occur until that official figure appears on the Observatory's climate database. Traders should monitor the Observatory's data release schedule and any operational disruptions; tropical systems or equipment maintenance occasionally delay publication. No KYC requirements apply to positions under $1,500 on this market under UK-regulated prediction market frameworks, though US traders face CFTC reach considerations if their broker operates cross-border. German GlüStV rules do not apply to weather derivatives settled on non-German exchanges, though EU traders should verify their local jurisdiction's classification of prediction markets as financial instruments.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 14? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket KYC UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.