Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 15 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market settles on that single data point, published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once the meteorological day closes and official records are finalised. Hong Kong's June climate typically sees mean daily maxima between 29–31°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, meaning traders must account for the Observatory's publication lag before final resolution occurs.

Historical Hong Kong temperature records show June extremes ranging from 23.8°C to 36.3°C across the past three decades. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Comparable weather markets on established platforms typically see tighter clustering around seasonal norms; outlier ranges (below 25°C or above 34°C) attract minimal backing unless preceded by official severe-weather warnings. June 2026 falls outside any known El Niño or La Niña forecast window published by the Japan Meteorological Agency or NOAA as of early 2025.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's monthly forecasts released in early June 2026 and any tropical cyclone alerts issued by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre. Under German GlüStV regulations, this weather derivative may fall outside gaming classification if structured as a financial instrument; US CFTC reach typically excludes non-leveraged binary weather outcomes under $1,500 notional value. UK-based traders accessing this market through polymarket-kyc.co.uk benefit from the no-KYC threshold up to $1,500, though settlement verification still requires Observatory data confirmation before payout.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.