Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 17?

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Market context

On 17 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single daily maximum reading, published in the Observatory's official Daily Extract once the meteorological data is finalised and released.

Hong Kong's June temperatures typically range between 28 and 34 degrees Celsius, with occasional peaks above 35°C during heat waves. Historical data from the Observatory shows that extreme highs—those exceeding 36°C—occur in roughly 5–10% of June days over a thirty-year period, whilst readings below 28°C are rare and usually associated with tropical storm activity. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are either awaiting resolution data or have not yet engaged with this specific date. Comparable June 17 readings from prior years provide the most direct baseline: the Observatory's climate records show variability of 2–3°C year-on-year for this calendar date, making any single outcome within the typical range plausible.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone alerts issued in the weeks preceding mid-June 2026, as these directly influence daily maxima. The Observatory publishes monthly outlooks and updates its three-day forecasts regularly on its website. Resolution depends entirely on the Observatory's publication schedule for the Daily Extract; delays in data processing could postpone settlement beyond the window close. From a regulatory standpoint, this market falls under German GlüStV oversight if accessed from Germany, whilst US CFTC reach applies to US persons. The no-KYC threshold of $1,500 USD applies to aggregate trading positions; traders in jurisdictions with stricter weather-derivative rules should verify local treatment before committing capital.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.