Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 9 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single daily maximum reading, sourced from the Observatory's published "Absolute Daily Max" figure once the Daily Extract is finalised. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date, though resolution cannot occur until the Observatory publishes its data, typically within 24–48 hours of the observation period ending.

Hong Kong's June temperatures cluster around 28–32°C historically, with absolute daily maxima rarely exceeding 35°C during early June. The 6% crowd probability suggests traders expect an outlier outcome—likely a temperature threshold significantly above the seasonal norm. Comparable early-June heat events in Hong Kong are sparse; the territory's most extreme June readings typically occur later in the month when the southwest monsoon intensifies. Current implied odds reflect scepticism that 9 June 2026 will deviate markedly from typical early-summer patterns.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any issued heat warnings in the weeks preceding 9 June. The Observatory publishes monthly climate outlooks and issues special weather advisories when anomalous conditions develop. Additionally, broader East Asian weather patterns—particularly any early-season high-pressure systems or tropical cyclone activity—can shift local temperatures materially. The resolution depends entirely on the Observatory's official publication; no alternative data sources are accepted. Regulatory accessibility varies by jurisdiction: German traders should note GlüStV compliance requirements, whilst US participants fall under CFTC oversight of prediction markets. Markets with settlement values under $1,500 typically operate without KYC verification on certain platforms, though this does not exempt traders from applicable tax or reporting obligations in their home jurisdictions.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.