Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 23?

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Market context

On 23 May 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that official reading, drawn from the Observatory's "Absolute Daily Max" metric published in its Daily Extract dataset. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though resolution cannot occur until the Observatory finalises and publishes its data, typically within days of the observation period.

Hong Kong's May temperatures historically cluster in the 28–32°C range, with extremes rarely exceeding 35°C during this month. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current state rather than meteorological likelihood; such readings are typical for markets awaiting seasonal data entry. Comparable May days from the past decade show high variability driven by pre-monsoon conditions and occasional tropical systems, making any single-day forecast inherently uncertain. The Observatory's historical records provide a stable baseline: May maxima have ranged from lows near 26°C to highs around 34°C, depending on synoptic patterns.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone alerts issued between now and late May 2026, as these directly influence daily temperature ranges. The Observatory publishes extended outlooks monthly; its May 2026 bulletin will offer the most recent guidance on expected conditions. Additionally, El Niño or La Niña status updates from the World Meteorological Organisation may signal broader regional temperature trends. From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under German GlüStV frameworks where applicable and falls within CFTC oversight for US participants; however, the $1,500 no-KYC threshold for certain jurisdictions means many traders can access this weather contract without full identity verification, provided their total position value remains below that limit.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.