Highest temperature in London on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 11 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific station and date, with the resolution window closing at midday UTC. This is a straightforward meteorological measurement with no discretionary interpretation required.

London's June temperatures have historically clustered between 18°C and 24°C, though extremes above 28°C occur roughly once per decade during early summer heat waves. The current crowd probability of 0% suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool day or uncertainty about which temperature band the market offers. Comparable June settlements at UK airports show that mid-range outcomes (20–23°C) are most frequent, whilst outlier temperatures above 26°C or below 17°C remain statistical outliers. The 0% reading may reflect either sparse liquidity or a mismatch between available resolution brackets and expected conditions.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction and operator licensing. Under Germany's GlüStV framework, prediction markets on weather events fall outside gambling classification if they meet information-market criteria; however, UK-domiciled operators must comply with FCA rules. US CFTC reach extends to US persons accessing offshore platforms, though weather derivatives are generally exempt from full derivatives regulation. Most platforms allow anonymous trading up to $1,500 without KYC verification, though this threshold varies by operator and settlement currency. Traders should verify their local regulatory status before participation.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in London on June 11? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket KYC UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.