Highest temperature in London on June 12?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 12 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The Met Office and Wunderground historical data will determine settlement, with the resolution source explicitly tied to the airport's automated weather station readings in Celsius. Current crowd pricing reflects extreme scepticism about higher temperature bands, suggesting traders expect mild or cool conditions typical of early summer in London.

London's June temperatures have historically ranged from 14°C to 28°C at City Airport, with average highs around 21°C. The 0% probability assigned to the upper ranges indicates the market is pricing in either below-average conditions or baseline expectations of moderate warmth. Comparable June days from 2015–2024 show that temperatures exceeding 25°C occur in roughly one-third of years, whilst readings above 28°C are rare but not unprecedented; the 2022 heatwave saw June peaks near 30°C across London. This distribution suggests current odds may undervalue mid-to-high temperature scenarios.

Traders should monitor the UK's extended forecast from the Met Office, typically updated five to ten days before the settlement date. Atlantic weather patterns and potential high-pressure systems moving across the continent in early June will be the primary catalysts affecting outcome probability. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the day itself, meaning real-time weather tracking becomes critical in the final hours. No regulatory announcements or scheduled events directly influence this market; outcome depends entirely on meteorological conditions.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in London on June 12? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.