Highest temperature in London on June 13?

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Market context

On 13 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database, capturing the peak temperature across all hours of that calendar day in degrees Celsius. This market operates under UK gambling regulation and, where applicable, German GlüStV provisions for cross-border participation; traders in the US should note that CFTC oversight of prediction markets remains in flux, though binary weather contracts typically fall outside direct commodity futures regulation. The current crowd probability of 0% suggests either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish consensus pricing.

London's June temperatures have historically ranged between 15°C and 28°C, with the long-term average high around 21°C. The Met Office records show June 2022 peaked at 24.5°C at Heathrow, whilst June 2019 reached 32.0°C during an exceptional heatwave. These precedents frame how traders should calibrate expectations: whilst summer heat waves do occur, they remain statistically infrequent enough that mid-range outcomes (18–24°C) carry historical weight.

Catalysts include the North Atlantic Oscillation phase entering June, which influences Atlantic storm systems and high-pressure positioning over the British Isles. The UK Met Office issues its monthly outlook in early June; traders should monitor whether any extended-range forecasts flag anomalous warmth or cool patterns. Accessibility is straightforward for UK and EU residents under standard KYC thresholds; traders with positions under £1,500 equivalent may face reduced verification requirements depending on the platform's jurisdiction-specific rules.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.