Highest temperature in London on June 24?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event in question is the peak daytime temperature recorded at London City Airport on 24 June 2026, with the market currently assigning a 77% probability that the highest reading will fall within the 35°C or below range. This probability aligns with recent Met Office forecasts for the surrounding UK heatwave, which suggest daytime maximums near 35°C for the region, though the specific airport station may experience slightly moderated conditions due to local microclimates[2][7]. Historical data from late May shows the UK’s highest recorded temperature was 32.8°C, yet current projections indicate a potential jump to 36°C or higher, creating a tight margin for traders assessing whether the 35°C threshold will be breached[6].

Traders should monitor the Met Office’s hourly updates for London City Airport, particularly the Wednesday forecast predicting a high of 37°C, which could directly influence the settlement outcome if sustained through midday[7]. The resolution source is Wunderground’s official daily record for the station, and any discrepancy between forecasted highs and actual logged temperatures will determine the final range[1]. While the market remains accessible under the “no-KYC up to $1,500” rule, participants must note that German GlüStV regulations and US CFTC reach may impose additional compliance requirements for larger trades or cross-border activity, even if the platform currently operates without identity verification for smaller stakes. These regulatory frameworks do not alter the weather event itself but shape the accessibility and legal standing of the trade for different jurisdictions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in London on June 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.