Highest temperature in London on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the peak temperature recorded at London City Airport on 25 June 2026, a specific metric that will determine the market’s resolution. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 1% for a YES outcome, suggesting traders view an extreme heat spike as highly unlikely given typical June averages in London, which range from 20°C to 22°C[2]. Historical data from recent years shows London City Airport rarely exceeds 30°C, with the warmest day of the year so far reaching 37.8°C at Heathrow, not the airport station itself[9]. Even on 23 June 2026, the maximum temperature at a nearby NW3 site was 33.9°C, yet this does not guarantee the airport will match such extremes[8]. The low probability reflects the statistical rarity of the airport hitting a temperature range significantly above its historical norm.

Traders should monitor daily Met Office forecasts and real-time Wunderground updates, as sudden shifts in atmospheric pressure or humidity could alter temperature trajectories[6]. The settlement window ends 12:00 UTC on 25 June 2026, meaning any late-morning heatwave could still impact the outcome. Recent news highlights London heading toward its warmest day, but this primarily affects Heathrow, not the airport station[9]. Regulatory accessibility remains a key factor: under German GlüStV rules, platforms offering prediction markets must comply with strict licensing, while US CFTC reach extends to any market with US participants. The “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold allows traders to access this market without identity verification, provided they stay within the limit, enhancing accessibility for smaller participants while maintaining compliance with anti-money laundering standards. This structure ensures the market remains open to a broad audience without compromising legal obligations.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.