Highest temperature in London on June 8?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 8 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement source is Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station, measured in Celsius. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently see no meaningful likelihood of the market resolving to any particular outcome—an unusual state that typically reflects either extreme certainty about a single range or genuine uncertainty about how the market will function.

London's June temperatures historically cluster between 18°C and 24°C, with occasional peaks above 25°C during early summer heat waves. The 2022 heatwave saw London reach 40°C in July, but June typically remains more moderate. Comparable weather prediction markets on Polymarket have shown that crowd probabilities often compress toward a narrow range once the settlement date approaches, particularly when historical data provides a tight baseline. The current flat distribution suggests either the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity or traders are genuinely split across multiple temperature bands.

From a regulatory standpoint, this weather derivative falls under different jurisdictional frameworks depending on trader location. The German GlüStV treats prediction markets as gambling products requiring state licensing; UK traders face no equivalent blanket restriction but operate under Gambling Commission guidance for unregulated platforms. US CFTC jurisdiction over event derivatives remains unsettled, though weather contracts have historically received exemptive relief. Polymarket's no-KYC threshold of $1,500 USD per user applies here, meaning traders can participate without identity verification up to that cumulative stake, though larger positions trigger standard compliance requirements.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.