Highest temperature in London on June 9?

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Market context

On 9 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement will draw from Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific station and date, with the crowd currently assigning zero probability to any outcome—a state typical of markets opened far in advance of their resolution window.

London's June temperatures have historically clustered between 18°C and 24°C, though extremes do occur; the Met Office records show June highs ranging from 16°C in cooler years to 28°C during warmer spells. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's distance from resolution rather than certainty that no temperature will be recorded. Comparable weather markets on this platform have shown that early-stage probability distributions often shift materially as the settlement date approaches and seasonal forecasts sharpen. The current flat assessment provides traders with substantial room to position on expected ranges without fighting established consensus.

From a regulatory standpoint, this weather derivative falls within the remit of the German GlüStV (Glücksspielstaatsvertrag) if accessed from Germany, where prediction markets require specific licensing. US CFTC oversight applies to traders operating from the United States, though weather index contracts typically receive lighter scrutiny than financial derivatives. For traders in the UK and most EU jurisdictions, markets under $1,500 notional value often operate without KYC requirements, lowering friction for small positions. Wunderground's data source is publicly accessible and auditable, reducing settlement disputes common in less transparent weather markets.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in London on June 9? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket KYC UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.