Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 25?

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Market context

Mexico City's weather on 25 May 2026 will be measured at Benito Juárez International Airport, the official meteorological station for the capital. The highest temperature recorded that day will determine which range resolves YES. May is late spring in Mexico City, typically characterised by warm afternoons before the onset of the rainy season, with historical highs in the 26–28°C range for this period.

The 0% implied probability reflects the market's current state rather than meteorological impossibility. Historical temperature records from Wunderground show May 25th highs in Mexico City cluster between 25 and 29°C across recent years, with occasional excursions to 30°C during warmer years. The absence of trading activity and the distant settlement date mean no consensus has yet formed on which temperature band is most likely. Comparable weather markets typically see probability distributions sharpen only in the final weeks before settlement as atmospheric patterns become more predictable.

Traders should monitor seasonal climate forecasts from Mexico's National Meteorological Service (SMN) and track any El Niño or La Niña conditions that could influence May temperatures. The specific resolution source—Wunderground's historical data for MMMX station—is publicly accessible and updates automatically, removing settlement ambiguity. From a regulatory standpoint, this market operates under German GlüStV framework where applicable, with US CFTC reach limited to US persons. Traders in most jurisdictions can access positions under $1,500 without KYC requirements, though verification may be required for larger stakes or depending on local rules.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.