Highest temperature in NYC on June 11?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 11 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. This market settles based on historical weather data from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, and measures the peak daily temperature in Fahrenheit. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, after which no further temperature readings will affect the outcome.

New York City's June temperatures typically range between 75–85°F, with occasional peaks above 90°F during heat waves. Historical data from the National Weather Service shows that LaGuardia has recorded June highs exceeding 95°F in roughly one year per decade; the current crowd probability of 0% suggests traders are pricing in a below-average heat day relative to the full range of possible outcomes. Comparable June markets in prior years have seen similar clustering around modal temperature bands, with extreme ranges (below 70°F or above 95°F) attracting minimal liquidity.

Traders should monitor the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's extended forecast in early June, which typically becomes reliable five to seven days ahead. Atlantic tropical systems or high-pressure systems moving into the Northeast can shift outcomes materially; the Atlantic hurricane season officially begins 1 June, and any early-season activity tracking toward the region would warrant reassessment. Regulatory access to this market depends on jurisdiction: UK traders face no specific KYC threshold for weather derivatives under £1,500 notional value, whilst US participants remain subject to CFTC oversight regardless of stake size. German traders should verify compliance with GlüStV provisions, which classify prediction markets as gambling products subject to state licensing requirements.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 11? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket KYC UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.