Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 12 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. This market resolves based on historical weather data from Wunderground, the designated source, and settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC that day. The 100% crowd probability reflects the certainty that a temperature reading will occur; the actual range outcome remains open.

New York's June temperatures show considerable year-to-year variation. Historical data from the National Weather Service indicates LaGuardia highs in mid-June typically range from 75°F to 88°F, though extremes have reached into the low 90s during heat waves. The 2021 Pacific Northwest heat dome and subsequent summer patterns across the Northeast provide recent context for how atmospheric conditions can shift seasonal norms. Traders should note that early June weather patterns—particularly the North Atlantic Oscillation and jet stream positioning—often signal whether the second week of the month will trend warmer or cooler than the 30-year average.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on jurisdiction and platform terms. Under German GlüStV rules, prediction markets operating within EU reach face stricter licensing requirements than unregulated platforms. US CFTC oversight applies to derivatives-like instruments but typically exempts certain prediction markets under the Treasury Amendment. Many platforms offer no-KYC participation up to $1,500 notional exposure per calendar year, which would cover single-outcome weather markets at standard stake levels. Traders should verify their own platform's compliance framework and residency restrictions before participation.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 12? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.