Highest temperature in NYC on June 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the daily maximum temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 22 June 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. Historical climate normals for LaGuardia in mid-June show an average high of 83°F, with a record maximum of 98°F set in 2012[2]. Recent forecasts for June 2026 at this station indicate daily highs ranging between 75°F and 88°F, aligning with typical seasonal variability rather than extreme outliers[3]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific high suggests the market expects the temperature to fall within a range already heavily priced or deemed unlikely to breach specific thresholds, consistent with stable early-summer patterns where extremes are rare.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports issued for LaGuardia, which provide the official high temperature for each day and serve as the primary settlement dependency[2]. While no specific weather announcement has been made for 22 June yet, the settlement relies entirely on Wunderground’s recorded data for KLGA, making data availability and timestamp accuracy critical[5]. Recent volatility in similar climate prediction markets, such as the Los Angeles high on 22 June 2026, underscores the importance of tracking real-time forecast updates from the NWS point forecast, which recently adjusted expectations for a cooler-than-normal day in another major city[4].

Accessibility for this market is shaped by regulatory frameworks including Germany’s GlüStV and US CFTC reach, which influence how prediction markets operate across jurisdictions. The “no-KYC up to $1,500” provision allows traders to participate without identity verification for stakes under this threshold, enhancing accessibility while maintaining compliance with anti-money laundering standards. This structure permits broader participation in weather-based prediction markets like the NYC high temperature event, provided users adhere to jurisdictional limits and platform-specific rules. The market remains open for trading until the settlement window closes on 22 June 2026 at 12:00 UTC[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 22? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket KYC UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.