Highest temperature in NYC on June 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daytime heat recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 24 June 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit by Weather Underground. Historical June data for New York shows daily highs typically ranging from 75°F to 89°F, with an average high of 83°F and a record high of 98°F[4][5]. Recent comparable cases, such as the 84–85°F resolution on 10 June 2026 and the Central Park warm spell nearing 80°F in March 2026, suggest that a 0% YES probability for a specific high range is unusually low unless the market implies a near-certain outcome outside that bracket[7][8].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s mid-June forecast updates and any sudden shifts in the Atlantic high-pressure system, which often drives heatwaves into the Northeast. A recent AccuWeather report confirms June 2026 highs will likely stay between 75°F and 89°F, making extreme deviations rare[5]. The settlement depends entirely on Wunderground’s official daily record for KLGA, so any data latency or station recalibration could alter the final resolution[1].

Regulatory accessibility hinges on jurisdictional frameworks: Germany’s GlüStV may restrict unlicensed prediction markets, while the US CFTC maintains broad reach over commodity-linked derivatives. The “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold allows retail participants to trade this weather event without identity verification, provided they remain under the limit and comply with local anti-money laundering rules. This specific market remains accessible to UK residents via Polymarket’s KYC-exempt tier, assuming no new tax or licensing changes intervene.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.