Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the peak daily temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 26 June 2026, a specific meteorological data point that determines the settlement of this weather prediction contract. Historical precedents from the same week in 2026 show a consistent pattern of extreme heat, with a recent scorching heatwave on 21 June smashing records across the Northeast, including Central Park reaching 102°F, the hottest June day since records began[3]. Similar prediction markets for 24 June and 26 June both assigned a 100% probability to the 82–83°F range, suggesting the current 0% YES probability for lower temperatures is not an anomaly but a reflection of established seasonal volatility and recent record-breaking trends[1][2].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service excessive heat warnings and the specific climatological reports issued for LaGuardia, as these dependencies directly influence the resolution source from Wunderground[3][5]. The immediate catalyst is the official daily high temperature confirmation, which follows the intense afternoon heating and warm overnight lows observed in the preceding days, limiting cooling relief and sustaining high heat index values[3]. While the market currently implies a 0% chance for lower temperatures, the regulatory landscape remains a critical factor for accessibility; German GlüStV implications and US CFTC reach define the compliance boundaries, while the "no-KYC up to $1,500" threshold allows immediate participation for retail traders without identity verification, provided the transaction stays within this specific limit for this market[1]. This accessibility feature ensures that the high trading volume of $135.2K can be maintained by a broad user base despite the strict regulatory frameworks governing climate derivatives.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket KYC UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.