Highest temperature in NYC on June 6?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 6 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges measured in degrees Fahrenheit. The National Weather Service operates this station as part of its standard meteorological network, and historical daily maxima are archived by Weather Underground. Settlement depends on the single highest reading captured across all hours of that calendar day at this specific location.

New York City's June temperatures typically range from 75 to 85 °F, with occasional peaks above 90 °F during heat waves. The current crowd probability of 0% YES suggests traders are either awaiting range options to be published or reflecting genuine uncertainty about which temperature bracket will resolve. Historical June records for the region show variability: the National Centers for Environmental Information records indicate June averages around 79 °F at LaGuardia, though extremes have reached into the mid-90s during anomalous warm periods. Comparable June markets in prior years have seen settlement across the full spectrum of available ranges, making baseline climatology essential context rather than predictive.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service New York office forecasts as June 2026 approaches, particularly any seasonal outlooks issued by NOAA in May that flag above- or below-normal temperature patterns for the Northeast. Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the North Atlantic Oscillation phase will influence whether high-pressure systems dominate the region during early June. Real-time weather models become reliable only 10–14 days before the settlement date, so early positioning carries substantial model uncertainty. The market's accessibility under UK and EU frameworks—including German GlüStV provisions permitting non-KYC trading up to €1,500 equivalent—means retail participation may increase as the date nears.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.