Highest temperature in NYC on June 7?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 7 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. The National Weather Service maintains continuous observation at this major New York City airport, and Wunderground's historical database archives these readings with daily granularity. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must assess the full 24-hour temperature profile for the day before the market locks.

Historical June temperatures at LaGuardia show considerable variability. The airport's 30-year average high for early June sits near 77°F, though individual days regularly exceed 85°F during warm spells and occasionally dip to the low 70s during cooler patterns. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity; comparable weather markets typically see non-zero probabilities across multiple ranges unless settlement is imminent. June 2026 falls outside the typical Atlantic hurricane season onset, reducing the likelihood of anomalous weather systems that might drive exceptional heat or cool-downs.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's extended forecast for the New York region as June approaches, particularly any heat dome development or upper-level pattern shifts in late May. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center issues monthly outlooks that can signal whether June 2026 is tracking warmer or cooler than climatological norms. Airport station data occasionally reflects localised effects from tarmac heating and urban infrastructure, so comparing LaGuardia readings against nearby Central Park observations may reveal systematic biases relevant to range selection.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 7? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.