Highest temperature in Paris on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 June 2026, Paris-Le Bourget Airport is bracing for a scorching heat dome that has already pushed temperatures toward 44°C across France, with the red alert extended specifically for this Friday. The crowd-implied 0% probability for a 41°C+ peak reflects a market expectation that temperatures are easing slightly, even as the heatwave remains severe, with highs around 37°C forecast for the following day.

Historical precedents frame this low probability: France recorded its hottest day since 1947 on 23 June, with readings above 40°C and a peak of 43°C in some areas, yet the national thermal indicator averaged only 29.8°C, suggesting extreme variability rather than uniform record-breaking heat across all stations. The current easing trend, noted by Sortiraparis as temperatures dropping to 37°C by Saturday, aligns with the market’s dismissal of a 41°C+ outcome for this specific date.

Traders should monitor the Canicule Info Service updates and any sudden shifts in the heat dome’s intensity, as the prolonged heat has already killed 18 people in France, including two children, according to Euronews. While no immediate regulatory announcements are expected, the German GlüStV and US CFTC frameworks remain relevant for platform compliance, and the “no-KYC up to $1,500” threshold ensures this market remains accessible to retail participants without identity verification, provided they stay within the limit.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.