Highest temperature in Paris on June 6?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 6 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will settle into one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data from Wunderground, capturing the peak daily temperature in Celsius across all hours of that date. This is a straightforward meteorological observation with no discretionary element—the figure either falls within a range or it does not.

Historical June temperatures at Le Bourget provide the baseline for calibrating these ranges. The station's June averages hover around 20–22°C, with typical highs reaching 24–26°C. Extreme heat days—temperatures exceeding 30°C in early June—occur roughly once per decade at this location, making such outcomes statistically uncommon but not unprecedented. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect no outcome to materialise, which typically reflects either extreme confidence in a specific range or insufficient liquidity drawing participants into the market.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market's accessibility depends on the trader's jurisdiction and the platform's compliance framework. Under German GlüStV rules, weather derivatives fall outside gaming regulation if structured as financial instruments; however, prediction markets remain in a grey zone pending clarification. US CFTC oversight applies to US persons, though weather-indexed contracts have historically received lighter scrutiny than commodity or equity derivatives. Platforms offering no-KYC access up to $1,500 USD typically rely on this threshold to operate in lower-friction jurisdictions; traders should verify whether their own location's tax authority requires reporting of prediction market gains regardless of KYC status. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on the day itself, allowing only morning trades before Le Bourget's final temperature is locked in.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket KYC UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket KYC UK?

Zero. Polymarket KYC UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.