Highest temperature in Paris on May 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The outcome depends on the highest temperature recorded at Paris–Le Bourget Airport on 22 May, with settlement tied to the final Wunderground history entry once the day is complete. Recent market pricing has leaned hard towards a warm afternoon, with one Paris temperature market for 22 May showing 29°C as the clear frontrunner and only a small chance on 28°C. That lines up with the broader late-May pattern in Paris, where warm spells can arrive quickly once cloud and rain clear, but a single strong afternoon peak is still what matters for this contract.

Comparable Paris weather markets suggest traders should watch the day’s maximum rather than the morning feel: a forecasted 15°C start and 26°C afternoon high has already appeared in local coverage for Friday, with some outlooks pointing to summer-like conditions around 27°C across the weekend. Sortiraparis reported on 18 May that 22 May would be “much drier” and reach 26°C, which is close to the range now implied by the market. For accessibility, the legal backdrop matters as much as the forecast: German users face GlüStV restrictions that can limit access to gambling-like products, US persons may be subject to CFTC reach depending on the structure and enforcement posture, and “no-KYC up to $1,500” means smaller balances can typically participate without identity checks, while larger activity triggers verification.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on May 22? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.