Highest temperature in Paris on May 23?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 23 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station will determine the settlement outcome. Historical May temperatures in the Paris region typically range between 15 and 25 degrees Celsius, with occasional peaks above 25°C during warm spells. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands offered or expect settlement data retrieval to present complications. May weather in northern France is characterised by increasing warmth but remains subject to Atlantic weather systems that can suppress temperatures; comparable years show variability rather than predictable extremes.

Traders monitoring this market should track European weather forecasting updates from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as May 2026 approaches. The resolution mechanism depends entirely on Wunderground's historical data capture for the Paris-Le Bourget station—a civilian airport with established meteorological infrastructure—meaning data availability is generally reliable once the settlement window closes on 23 May at 12:00 UTC. Any disruption to station operations or data transmission could delay resolution.

From a regulatory standpoint, this weather derivative falls under the German GlüStV framework if accessed from Germany, whilst US CFTC oversight applies to American participants. The market's accessibility threshold—no KYC required up to $1,500 notional exposure—permits retail engagement without identity verification below that tier, though larger positions trigger standard verification protocols. Traders should confirm their jurisdiction's treatment of prediction market positions before committing capital.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.