Highest temperature in Paris on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. Resolution depends on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific date and location, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC. Late-spring temperatures in the Paris region typically range between 15–25°C, though outlier events do occur; the 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a calibration test rather than a substantive prediction.

Historical May temperatures at Le Bourget show considerable variability. Between 2010 and 2023, 25 May highs ranged from 14°C to 28°C, with a median near 20°C. The current zero probability reflects the market's nascent state—no meaningful trading activity has yet anchored expectations. Comparable spring-weather markets typically see probability mass shift only as the settlement date approaches within 7–10 days, when deterministic forecasts become reliable. Early traders face wide uncertainty bands and limited information advantage.

From a regulatory standpoint, this weather derivative falls under different jurisdictional frameworks depending on trader location. The German GlüStV treats prediction markets as gambling-adjacent instruments requiring state licensing; UK-domiciled platforms must comply with FCA guidance on financial promotions. US CFTC oversight applies to US persons, though weather derivatives themselves occupy a grey zone outside direct CFTC futures regulation. Platforms offering no-KYC access up to $1,500 per transaction typically rely on this threshold to avoid full AML/KYC burdens, though this market's low notional value and non-financial nature may qualify it for lighter compliance regimes in several jurisdictions.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.