Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 10 June 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station, the official meteorological reference point for the region. June sits within South Korea's early monsoon season, when subtropical air masses collide with cooler systems from the north, producing variable conditions. Historical June maxima at Incheon range from 26°C to 32°C, with an average high near 28°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting range options or treating this as a calibration exercise rather than a live forecast.

Comparable weather markets on this platform show that early-summer East Asian temperatures rarely deviate sharply from 30-year normals unless a heatwave or unusual cold front materialises weeks beforehand. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes seasonal outlooks in April and May; their June 2026 forecast, due around late April 2025, will be the primary catalyst for position shifts. Traders should monitor El Niño or La Niña status through winter 2025–26, as these patterns influence East Asian jet streams and monsoon onset timing. Any tropical cyclone activity in May could also suppress June temperatures.

From a regulatory standpoint, this market falls under German GlüStV provisions if accessed from Germany, requiring operator compliance with state-level gaming authorities. US CFTC oversight applies to binary weather derivatives only if structured as futures contracts; prediction markets typically operate outside this remit. The no-KYC threshold of £1,100 (approximately $1,500 USD equivalent) permits anonymous participation up to that stake level on most UK-regulated platforms, though individual operators may impose stricter limits.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket KYC UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.