Highest temperature in Seoul on June 11?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's peak temperature on 11 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. Early June in Seoul typically sits between 22–28 °C, though heat waves can push readings above 30 °C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect no extreme heat event on that specific date, reflecting baseline seasonal expectations rather than a forecast of unusually cool conditions.

Historical June temperatures in Seoul show considerable year-to-year variance. The past decade has recorded June highs ranging from 24 °C to 34 °C depending on monsoon onset timing and high-pressure systems. Comparable early-June markets have resolved across multiple temperature bands, with outcomes clustering around 26–29 °C in typical years but occasionally spiking when subtropical air masses arrive early. The current zero probability may reflect either low liquidity or genuine consensus that extreme heat is unlikely for this particular date.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts, typically released in May, which flag El Niño or La Niña conditions affecting June patterns. The North Pacific high-pressure system's strength and timing in early June will be the primary driver; early intensification can deliver 32+ °C readings, whilst delayed establishment keeps peaks moderate. Real-time tracking of upper-level atmospheric patterns from mid-May onwards will provide the clearest signal for temperature trajectory heading into the settlement window.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 11? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket KYC UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.